IEA World Energy Outlook to 2035 Just Released

The IEA released the latest update to its World Energy Outlook 2010 in London, UK November 9th.  After enduring the recent debate here in California over Proposition 23 that sought to suspend California’s Global Warming Solutions Act (It lost, by the way, so its full steam ahead on carbon taxes to force reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) the factoid I found most interesting in this IEA report is:

“A drop in coal-fired generation in the OECD is offset by big increases elsewhere, especially China, where 600 GW of new capacity exceeds the current capacity of the US, EU & Japan.”

This means that the entirety of OECD efforts and California’s strategy to tax itself to enforce a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the Golden State is more than completely negated by the just the increase in new fossil fuel capacity in China alone.

“The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 & 2035, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in 2035”

The actions of the United States and EU with China in a close third place position will result in a tripling of renewable energy use by 2035 according to the IEA report. But this achievement will come at a price as government subsidies for renewable energy grows from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion in 2035.

The report laments that the cost of achieving the 2°C policy goal of the failed Copenhagen conference on climate change has risen by more than $ 1 trillion.

In that 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035.  The report concludes that achieving this rejected goal now means that carbon intensity would have to fall at twice the rate of 1990-2008 in the period 2008-2020 and almost four times faster in 2020-2035.

And THAT is precisely the reason the major economies of the world declined the opportunity in Copenhagen to commit economic suicide.